Worried about your investments next year? Fear not, Nuveen Asset Management’s Bob Doll said Monday.
“My view is oil is going to stabilize at a low level, and we will see some of the consumer dividend get spent next year. So, the consumer’s going to be a bit better, oil’s going to be less of a headwind, so we’re going to be OK,” the firm’s chief equity strategist told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“Earnings are going to be OK, China is stabilizing; that was a big bugaboo in 2015.”
Corporate earnings have been hurt by a rise in the dollar, which has gained more than 8 percent against a basket of major currencies. Growth concerns in China also have weighed on financial markets this year, especially in oil prices. U.S. crude prices have fallen about 40 percent this year.
This will be hard to come by in 2016: ScottSperling- Major Asian stocks close mixed, Shanghai ends sharply lower
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For the year, the S&P 500 is up just 0.1 percent, while the Dow Jones industrial average is down 1.52 percent. The Nasdaq composite has risen 6.6 percent.
Most strategists, economists and analysts, however, don’t share Doll’s optimism regarding 2016.
“We have improvement on the economic front in the U.S., but because of the stronger dollar, we have corporate profits under pressure,” Alison Deans, chief investment officer at CRT Capital, said Monday in another “Squawk Box” interview.
Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Nicolaus, agreed with Deans’ outlook for next year in the same interview.
“Most of that lack of growth has been driven by the hesitancy in the business side to invest. We saw another very disappointing durable goods report come in just last week. Businesses [are] still facing the same lingering themes: a higher dollar, ample inventory overhang and lingering uncertainty about the U.S. economy,” she said. “I really see no catalyst for growth at this point.”
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The Federal Reserve also raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade on Dec. 16. The central bank has maintained it would remain data dependent when assessing future rate hikes, adding that it would take a “gradual” path toward normalization.
Still, given less-than-stellar economic data, the Fed is likely to do a “one-and-done” hike, Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, said Monday.
“The Fed is much more cognizant of the vulnerability of the economy,” he told “Squawk Box.” “I think the best employment news is behind us. I don’t think we’re really going to see massive organic growth going forward.”
“At best, they may do six months into the year another hike if the economy is really on a very smooth trajectory up. After that, they’re going to stop because of … politics. They have to stop in front of the election.”
Schlossberg also said the central bank will not raise rates too much if crude prices remained low. “Everybody is forecasting $20 oil. That is completely inconceivable with higher rates. If you have $20 oil, there is no way we have higher rates.”
[“source -cncb”]