Long-time bull Jeremy Siegel said Thursday that 2016 will bring much better earnings growth due to one factor: The Federal Reserve.
“I actually think we’re not going to get four rate increases next year,” the Wharton School professor told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“I think we’re going to get two or three. I don’t think we’re going to get interest rates that are going to go up all the way back to the precrisis level,” he said. “I think we’re going to stay at low interest rates, and that’s why I think valuations can stay on the high side.”
The Fed raised rates for the first time in nearly 10 years on Dec. 16, but maintained that the path toward normalization would be a “gradual” one.
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Such conditions should lead to earnings growing by 10 percent in 2016, Siegel said.
Ed Campbell, portfolio manager at Quantitative Management Associates, disagreed with Siegel’s take.
“Unfortunately, it looks like deja vu all over again for the markets in 2016,” he told “Squawk Box.” “The market is going to struggle to gain traction again in 2016. We think we’re looking at a 3-to-5 percent return for the S&P 500. It’s basically because earnings are challenged this year. We actually got no earnings growth at all.”
“We think the dollar is likely going to be a headwind for earnings going forward, and we can’t say with any confidence that oil has bottomed.”
Companies have struggled with earnings this year, amid pressure from a strong dollar.
Dollar index in 2015
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